← All markets
Macro & inflation
Will gold close above $4,850 by May 30?
Gold has been on a tear in 2026. This market settles YES if the XAU/USD daily close is above $4,850 on or before 30 May. Reference: LMAX exchange rate, captured daily.
Settles on
Settles YES the first day XAU/USD closes above $4,850 (LMAX feed). NO if 2026-05-30 passes without a touch.
When this market settles you can see the full source response, hash, and outcome on the public transcript page.
Implied probability — last 22 points
18% start13% now
Place a ticket
Pays if YES€18.00
Free to play. No money in or out. €10,000 demo balance on signup.
Cents are the crowd's probability. 25¢ on YES = 25% chance, payout 4×.
Volume placed: €50.00